University of Michigan
Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA
Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics
Saul H. Hymans, Director
Conference Speakers
Dr. Severin Borenstein is E.T. Grether Professor of Business Economics and Public Policy at the Haas School of Business and Director of the Energy Institute, at the University of California, Berkeley. Severin's research focuses on business competition, strategy, and regulation; the economics of renewable energy; and climate change. He has published extensively on the airline, oil and gasoline, and electricity markets, as well as on insurance, e-commerce, mining, natural gas and other industries. During 1997-2003, Borenstein was a member of the Governing Board of the California Power Exchange, and served on the California Attorney General's gasoline price task force in 1999-2000. At the Outlook Conference, Severin's talk on the Energy Sector will cover oil, natural gas, coal, renewable energy sources, and climate change.
Dr. Capozza is Professor of Finance and Real Estate and Dykema Professor of Business Administration in the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business. His research activity is currently focused on real estate and consumer finance. Some recent published research includes articles on capital intensity and interest rates; income taxes and housing prices; the dynamic structure of housing markets; and debt, agency and management contracts in REITs.
A senior staff member and research specialist in RSQE since 1978, Joan Crary is a principal co-author of RSQE's econometric models of both the U.S. and the Michigan economies. Joan is an expert on the fiscal position of the U.S. government as well as the economy and finances of the State of Michigan. She is quoted frequently in the regional financial press, and her expertise is sought regularly by legislative committees and departments of state government in Lansing.
Dr. Curtin has been a featured annual speaker at the Economic Outlook Conference since 1976 when he became Director of Michigan's world renowned Survey of Consumers. Rich is truly an expert on the American household as consumer, and his research into the measurement of consumer sentiment has produced the only survey measure which is an official component of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators. In recent years, Rich has consulted with officials seeking to establish consumer surveys in Russia, China, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Indonesia.
Dr. Dunkelberg, professor and former dean of the School of Business and Management at Temple University, is a nationally known authority on small business, entrepreneurship, consumer credit, and government policy. He is a Fellow and past president of NABE, the National Association for Business Economics. Since 1971, he has served as Chief Economist for the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). In that capacity, Bill is responsible for NFIB's monthly survey of the attitudes and plans of independent business leaders, and he authors a monthly report that explains the survey results. He is much in demand on the national stage, having appeared on ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN and numerous local news and business TV and radio shows. Dr. Dunkelberg will discuss Inflation, Employment and Capital Investment at the Outlook Conference.
Professor Fulton is a specialist in regional economic modeling and forecasting, has participated in the Michigan Economy project in RSQE since the mid 1980s, and holds the rank of Research Professor both in RSQE and the Institute of Labor and Industrial Relations at the University of Michigan. George has published widely in the academic literature and is quoted frequently in the regional press. He has also been an exceptionally successful teacher of economic forecasting procedures; and his presentations, whether in a classroom or at a conference, always sparkle with wit and clarity.
Dr. Peter Hooper joined Deutsche Bank Securities in the fall of 1999 as Chief International Economist and shortly thereafter assumed responsibilities as Chief US Economist. In 2006 he became Chief Economist. Peter comments frequently on US and global economic and financial developments in the national news media. Prior to joining Deutsche Bank, he enjoyed a distinguished 26-year career at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C. While at the Fed, he held numerous positions, most notably as an economist on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and as Deputy Director of the Division of International Finance. Dr. Hooper earned his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Michigan. He has published numerous books, journal articles, and reviews on economics and policy analysis, has appeared at the Outlook Conference on several occasions, and will discuss his global perspective on U.S. Economic Prospects at this year's Conference.
Professor Hymans, Director of RSQE, is a widely-known econometric modeler and forecaster, and an emeritus professor of economics and statistics at the University of Michigan. Saul has been involved in the presentation of the U.S. economic forecast at Michigan’s Annual Conference on the Economic Outlook since 1969, has had major responsibility for the U.S. economic forecast in the Pacific Economic Outlook Project of the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council since 1988, and has twice been the recipient of the national Blue Chip Annual Economic Forecasting Award (AEFA) recognizing accuracy, timeliness, and professionalism in economic forecasting.
Brian Jacob is the Walter H. Annenberg Professor of Education Policy, Professor of Economics, and Director of the Center on Local, State and Urban Policy (CLOSUP) at the University of Michigan's Gerald R. Ford School of Public Policy. He is also a Faculty Research Fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research and an Executive Committee Member of the National Poverty Center. He has previously served as a policy analyst in the NYC Mayor's Office and taught middle school in East Harlem. Brian's primary fields of interest are labor economics and the economics of education. His current research focuses on urban school reform and teacher labor markets. In recent work, he has studied school choice, education accountability programs, housing vouchers, and teachers as workers. At the 2007 Outlook Conference, Brian will draw upon his latest research findings to discuss whether or not Managers Fire the Worst Employees.
Dr. Sean McAlinden is Chief Economist and Vice President of Research at the Center for Automotive Research (CAR), a non-profit institute in Ann Arbor. Sean is an acknowledged expert and highly sought after speaker on the economics of the global automotive industry. He has completed studies on the future of the automotive value chain, investor expectations of industry performance, automotive sourcing of large sub-assemblies, state economic policy in automotive facility site decisions, attrition, employment and hiring among the traditional Detroit Big Three, and optimal global automotive capacity planning. Sean and colleagues are completing a study that will forecast US and Michigan automotive employment through 2015. At this year's Conference Sean will address Michigan's Auto Economy Over the Next Decade.
For more than three decades, Dr. Allen Sinai has served a wide variety of organizations in the United States and abroad as an economic analyst, forecaster, educator, and financial markets adviser. He has been consulted by various Administrations from both political parties on key economic and policy issues, has often testified before Congress, and meets regularly with senior level policymakers from other countries. Currently, Allen serves as Chief Global Economist and President of Decision Economics, Inc. (DE), a global economics and financial market advisory firm founded in 1996. Between 1983 and 1996, he was Chief Global Economist, a Managing Director, and Director of Global Economics at Lehman Brothers, Inc. Prior to that he was employed at Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) where he worked with founder and head Otto Eckstein in macroeconomic and financial forecasting and as a co-developer of the DRI Model of the U.S. Economy. Dr. Sinai is frequently cited in the news media, and over many years has appeared on numerous radio and national television programs and has spoken at the Outlook Conference on several occasions. This year, Allen will discuss How Long Can Economic Expansion Last.
A senior research associate at RSQE since 1986, Janet Wolfe concentrates her energies on the U.S. modeling and forecasting project in RSQE. She is an acknowledged expert on U.S. government data and is responsible for RSQE's national data bank. Janet is also a highly successful instructor in the Economics Department and teaches a wide range of classes, including advanced macroeconomics, econometrics, and microeconomic theory.